Fresno State
California State University, Fresno · 2025 · Mountain West
Fresno State went 9-4 and was ranked 66th in the FanBoardHQ CFP Rankings (blended resume and efficiency). Their 77th-ranked defense carried them, with a 101st-ranked offense. They ran the ball on 55% of offensive plays with an 110th-ranked rushing attack and passed the ball on the remaining 45% of plays with an 80th-ranked passing attack.
Quadrant record
By opponent strength, adjusted for where the game was played.
Projected wins
Per-game win probabilities combined across the full schedule.
The resume
Every game on the schedule. Click a row for the game breakdown (played) or the matchup projection (upcoming).
| Wk | Opponent | Conf | Opp rank | Result | Exp. margin | Win prob | GameScore | Quad |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | @ Kansas | Big 12 | #71 | L 7–31 | -13.9 | 0% | -24.3 | Q2 |
| 1 | vs Georgia Southern | Sun Belt | #87 | W 42–14 | +8.1 | 100% | 9.2 | Q4 |
| 2 | @ Oregon State | Pac-12 | #127 | W 36–27 | +4.4 | 100% | -11.6 | Q4 |
| 3 | vs Southern | SWAC | — | W 56–7 | +45.3 | 100% | -10.2 | Q4 |
| 4 | @ Hawai'i | Mountain West | #63 | W 23–21 | -4.6 | 100% | 0.1 | Q3 |
| 6 | vs Nevada | Mountain West | #125 | W 20–17 | +13.7 | 100% | -17.9 | Q4 |
| 7 | @ Colorado State | Mountain West | #130 | L 21–49 | +7.2 | 0% | -37.6 | Q4 |
| 9 | vs San Diego State | Mountain West | #47 | L 0–23 | -8.5 | 0% | -23.9 | Q3 |
| 10 | @ Boise State | Mountain West | #46 | W 30–7 | -12.7 | 100% | 25.9 | Q2 |
| 12 | vs Wyoming | Mountain West | #112 | W 24–3 | +7.7 | 100% | 5.5 | Q4 |
| 13 | vs Utah State | Mountain West | #81 | L 17–28 | -0.7 | 0% | -16.5 | Q4 |
| 14 | @ San José State | Mountain West | #123 | W 41–14 | +5.5 | 100% | 8.3 | Q4 |
| Postseason | ||||||||
| — | vs Miami-OH | Mid-American | #88 | W 18–3 | -0.1 | 100% | 9.6 | Q4 |
13 played · 9-4. Expected margin and gamescore use the latest ratings — a completed game shows what the model would say now, not that week.
The season
The model’s read on Fresno State, recomputed after every week. Toggle between overall, offensive, and defensive efficiency (each with a dot for that week’s game) or the FanBoardHQ CFP rank.
Passing & rushing
Opponent-adjusted, FBS-only. The bar is the blended Eff rank — EPA/play (scoring value), success rate (staying on schedule), and yards/play (explosiveness), each standardized against the FBS field. The three ranks below each bar are those components, so you can see what's driving it.
Their offense vs. what their defense allows.
Scored vs. allowed, all regular-season games.
What kind of team is this?
Every team by offensive and defensive efficiency (points/game vs. an average team, higher is better on both). Click a dot for that team.
Field position 44th · Finishing 113th
Field position 104th · Finishing 71st
1.88 points per drive on offense, 1.11 allowed — starting, on average, at their own 34.
Play-calling & efficiency
What the offense did, by quarter and by down — raw, not opponent-adjusted.
| Quarter (att.) | Pass / rush | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1(207) | 45% / 55% | 39% | 5.5 |
| Q2(235) | 57% / 43% | 43% | 6.5 |
| Q3(173) | 42% / 58% | 41% | 4.8 |
| Q4(232) | 38% / 62% | 40% | 4.8 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(117) | 10.5 | 50% | 7.1 |
| 2nd(145) | 9.0 | 41% | 5.5 |
| 3rd(111) | 8.2 | 38% | 5.7 |
| 4th(15) | 7.3 | 27% | 1.9 |
| All (388) | — | 42% | 5.9 |
| Down (att.) | Avg. to go | Success | Yd/play |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st(248) | 10.0 | 35% | 4.9 |
| 2nd(141) | 6.9 | 45% | 6.2 |
| 3rd(62) | 5.2 | 44% | 3.4 |
| 4th(8) | 1.9 | 63% | 6.4 |
| All (459) | — | 40% | 5.1 |
Fresno State, all games.